富爸爸「怪論」
今晚在等聯儲局議息, 估計不變, 要看會後聲明會否重返neutral, 令到下次有減息可能, 但以阿伯的功力, 看來仍是傾向於仍有可能加息, 看看peter是否估中, under阿伯, 滯脹係死症. 不過, 這對股市未必壞, 因為只是窮人及部分中產有難, 企業盈利仍可觀, 美股有得玩.
然而「六親不認」的清崎又有偉論, 玩美股早已「明升實跌」, 似是怪論但不是歪理, 且看peter明天在et專欄介紹和分析.
對於635今年, peter仍有比較大的祈望, 但最重要是面對票房和口碑, 若兩者皆好, 即可能拍續集, 到時賣玩具一定好過拍片了, 否則, 係咁先. 有關635的消息, 請多留言.
然而「六親不認」的清崎又有偉論, 玩美股早已「明升實跌」, 似是怪論但不是歪理, 且看peter明天在et專欄介紹和分析.
對於635今年, peter仍有比較大的祈望, 但最重要是面對票房和口碑, 若兩者皆好, 即可能拍續集, 到時賣玩具一定好過拍片了, 否則, 係咁先. 有關635的消息, 請多留言.
posted by peter at 10:08 AM
18 Comments:
let's wait for the good news!
Peter, did u hear the rumors that US will attach Iran very soon?
Peter,十幾歲嘅對TMNT期望好大, 但對玩具就未必.....佢地話無(新意), 當然幾歲嘅又唔同講法. 無論如何, TMNT今個復活節實爆.
#1818出成績表, 表面睇, 可以講係超(靈)趕(紫) , 唔知Peter 點睇?
The rumur says that the attack will be carried out in April, yet according to the UN schedule, Iran will have two more months to comply. This is the compromise among the US, the EU, Rus and China.
Yet, there is some breaking news, the Iranian navy has captured 15 British sailors at the Gulf area.
The news is developing, with oil prices rise to over 62USD.
I still don't think war will break out very soon from the US-UK-Isreali side, but time tables may lead to disaster sooner that policy makers might have thought.
Read AJP Taylor's theory on the First World War.
崎, 最緊要係美國市場, 而不是香港玩具市場.
我一向相信1818才是龍頭.
剛剛睇完香港TMNT首映，而今晚美國全線公演，出閘係咪順利應該好快有初步結果。
至於呢套動畫之製作水準，我覺得拍得住國際級水準，585考牌應該算成功，不過話說回頭，現場氣氛則相當平靜，唔知係咪因為到場者並非以十八廿二為主流有關。
若果要指出TMNT缺點，我認為對白稍嫌過多，而且礙於好難將隻龜畫得表情豐富，應該多創作一於形體表演，譬如將某隻龜變身李小龍或阿諾舒華辛力加迷，慣性經常模仿偶象動作，相信效果會比勉強堆砌感情線為佳。
總結係：我覺得TMNT未必能夠大收旺場，但意馬製作動畫之能力，絕對足以吸引海外基金吸納。由於嘉豪所看是英文版，廣告話版可能會比較生鬼，加上係首部港資製作進軍荷李活，大家也應該去捧捧場者，尤其後生仔觀後感覺未必與我這類中坑相同，多比較才會客觀一點。
Peter, I won't pick up AJP Taylor book anymore, I read once in my schooltime, A-level history~~
US can't tolerate Iran cease to use USD, I think.
奉上一個美個網站有關TMNT票房預測
http://www.movie-list.com/forum/showthread.php?p=145359
TMNT (Box Office)
Outcome Odds Total Bets Total Staked
21 Million (and under) 9/2 (4.50) 8 1752500
21.1 - 22 Million 7/2 (3.50) 1 50000
22.1 - 23 Million 5/2 (2.50) 0 0
23.1 - 24 Million 3/2 F (1.50) 0 0
24.1 - 25 Million 2/1 (2.00) 0 0
25.1 - 26 Million 3/1 (3.00) 1 30000
26 Million (and over) 4/1 (4.00) 1 35000
另也可嘗試到以下網址查看票房
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/TMNT.php
以下還有一段較深入TMNT海外評語:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/film/reviews/article_display.jsp?&rid=8927&imw=Y
thank tim for the tip, I have also read some previews of the film, some say very good, some say old fashion, I agree that 585 is the winner, though the stock might have been overbought for the time being. US30s have great affection with tmnt, so I think it is also a very good chance for the revival of 635. Let's wait for the news from Walmart and other toy shops.
Cory, the currency problem is one of the factors for the coming war.
Tim, read my Saturday's column, I talk about horse racing and quote some of your words. But the main actor is Jeff, a trader in the US. I like his theory on horse and options, see if you agree.
當然同意。當彼此實力接近，再唔係講邊匹馬應該機會較突出，而係邊匹馬賠率比較值博；正如我指出職業投注集團之最拿手操作方式，係找出over the value對象下注。
睇埋是日ET引述585謝先生公開分帳方法，院商及分銷先取45-53%，餘下先扣30-35%給華納等(即總數15-20%?)，然後再扣廣告費US$35M，最後個份才屬於585。以我理解，簡單講即係585分成約相當於票房50%減US$35M，樂觀地以二億計，便有US$65M落袋；一億半則有US$45M；一億也有US$15M。由於製作成本大致上已經在半賣斷給華納時取回，應起碼有七八成可當淨利，則TMNT有望先替公司袋兩億港銀，然後再賺玩具及電玩專利分紅。假如用上述數字計算，現585約20倍P/E，唔算好平，但若加上潛力溢價計，則絕對唔貴，畢竟迪士尼係用超過50倍P/E收購Pizar，585係咪可以彈起，最重要係睇下佢將來搵到乜野內容，以及有否能力自創主角品牌。
You are right, so should have an eye on 585.
各位， 去蛇口休息兩天， 買些書．
Found some data about TMNT:
History:
Released/Movie Name/1st Weekend/US Gross/Worldwide Gross/Budget
3/30/1990 TMNT/$25,398,367/135,265,915/202,000,000 $13,500,000
3/22/1991 TMNT 2/$20,030,473/78,656,813/ - /25,000,000
3/19/1993 TMNT 3/$12,419,597/42,273,609/ - /$21,000,000
Current:
Domestic Total as of Mar. 23, 2007: $8,600,000 (Estimate)
Turtle power conquered North America as TMNT ruled the weekend with an opening of $25.5M, according to estimates. The PG-rated toon averaged a powerful $8,183 from 3,110 theaters and collected an amount that was almost identical to the record $25.4M debut of the live-action Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles from March 1990. However, ticket prices were much lower 17 years ago and films played in fewer theaters so that hit's $12,661 average from 2,006 locations was more impressive. With few new choices for kids in recent weeks, TMNT was able to corner the market for young ones. However, long term success could be challenging as Disney will unleash its rival animated entry Meet the Robinsons this Friday.
Hi Peter,
is it right time to buy #635?
i haven't seen TMNT yet.i think that would be an entertaining movie for kids,not for me 30something. HA~HA!
I have made a little mistake on calculation of Imagi's profit share on box office. It should be about 30% minus US$35M.
It means that if TMNT can hit US$200M, Imagi can get about US$25M. The break-even point should be around US$120M.
Dear Tim, I think the total revenue from worldwide screen will be up to 300million USD, and there should be other revenue including DVD and other copyrights(I am not sure 585 can get how much %besides the movie tickets.)
Thank you Jimmy for your tip, I also think that Disney's Robinson is the main Easter rival of TMNT, in essence, Robinson is a class A movie, while TMNT is only a class B one, imitating as a Class A, haha!!
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