「中國製造」
周一買et, 可看到peter兩篇文章, 所以係最抵買, mt會再講管理層的操守對股價的影響, et專欄則會講對「中國製造」的多重心態.
現時, 我等待的是668的業績宣布. 由於事忙, 如見有宣布, 請代post上blog.
peter多friend就因為夠真, peter講的, 回答的, 可能不順耳, 但自信是苦口良藥.
現時, 我等待的是668的業績宣布. 由於事忙, 如見有宣布, 請代post上blog.
peter多friend就因為夠真, peter講的, 回答的, 可能不順耳, 但自信是苦口良藥.
posted by peter at 12:47 PM
19 Comments:
真的是因為有朋友短炒獲利，而惹起大戶把184壓價嗎？倘真如此，那未免太小氣了
Just want to share some opinion. I am just a beginner in stock market, but I don’t agree of other ppl blaming on others for their own investment decision.
About the situation in macau, esp. ocean garden, I have a few comments:
1. The estate market is bubble. Everyone just want to rent a flat! Why? Because all the apartments here are not up to standard, poor management, poor maintenance, etc. My agent shown me to 4 Ocean Garden apartments when I first moved here. The interior of them, corridors are all like public hosing estate. Keep in mind they are all just under 10 yrs apartment, but the inside deteriorate badly already. Who would want to invest a couple Million in apartment of such a quality? I doubt!
2. Some people might think the economy of Macau is growing and so is the estate market. But remember, everyone has to rent a flat now because they work here when there is construction works. So you can imagine when all these construction works finished, noone actually needs to stay here. Even tourist business could be good, but strong demand for real estate of such high quality like ocean garden will be gone by then for sure. (I work in venetian construction site, in fact, ppl come here because of the high salary but noone will stay in macau after all the project is finished.)
3. The estate market was good once only because when macau govt’ let mainland china ppl immigrate to Macau with 1.5M investment and buying a flat and rent to hk ppl was their option. However the immigration policy has changed and now it's been pending.
I had once thought of getting 184 at around $4.5, trusting in Peter and as well the biz opportunity in Vietnam. (But with great hestitation because of wut i know about Ocean Garden in Macau) Then with a day delay, it flied up to $7 already. So I am not sure if i m lucky or not. But now, if you ask me to think about the stock again at this reasonable price, my hesitation comes back again.
et 阿活介紹標叔本書o咼, 我以為係邊個標叔......
本人並不同意fish的說法, 尤其是pt.2,那是外來人身份的看法, 須知道賭場愈開愈多荷官人工愈搶愈高(不管有否足夠賭客),荷官們錢多就會要求quality of life, 實用加上虛榮的物業就正合要求，當然質量管理等問題我唔清楚．．．聲明：我仲未有激成但想買入.
另外，peter 或有否高人可解答, 激成和榮豐(#63)都是星馬同鄉,思想接近, 激成會否學榮豐咁玩野法 ?
難到星馬同鄉都係小氣鬼?
係澳洲留學時遇上唔少 -_-
喜歡做d損人不利己概野
請澳門的朋友多談談對當地前景的看法, peter 仍然very bullish. 因為這不是短期工程問題, 很多大娛樂機構(新近包括playboy 集團準備在澳門展拳腳, 數以萬計的外國行政人員在未來幾年將被派往澳門, 他們要有較豪的地方住. 我也覺得海洋花園的保養有些問題, 但設計仍不差.
george, 有人想證明peter的預測(6至7元炒波幅是錯誤的), 那個cfo話股價上升亦是對股東的回報, 下次股東會應向他秋後算帳, haha!
活仔一向都幾捧場, 看文章後, 還要多謝關兄
的美言.
崎, 究竟63點玩嘢?
larry, 我有同感.
榮豐(#63)
http://phatdat.blogspot.com/2007/07/blog-post_16.html
特區有間上市公司，叫做榮豐（063），早排出通告，話要大玩「財富轉移」。孫柏文絕對唔係第一個講呢單嘢嘅人。基本上，大股東將會攞啲「廢柴」新加坡物業注入榮豐，同埋將榮豐啲特區貴地皮注入冇上市嘅公司，跟住一比一咁分畀股東。下個禮拜7月25日畀啲「獨立」小股東投票決定。
I understand COD (City of dreams), MSC (Macao studio city) and venetian parcel 5/6/7/8 are all on the way, but dun forget, since all these management expatriate has good allowance, they will only look for the best in town. Ocean garden was once the best..but for sure not anymore.
There are Mahattan, King's Ville and other new apartments in Taipa. The three empty buildings in ocean garden will only be second grade, even if they are not alreayd worn out inside.
On the other hand, the income of 荷官 maybe higher than before. But just ranging from 13k - 20k, do you think they can afford to buy an apartment of a few millions?
As well, since there are too many people from Hong Kong and expatriates working in Taipa for all those construction sites, cost of living is much higher than those old city in Macau (same thing i got from Park'n shop in Taipa could be 30% more than the same thing cost me in Lee Garden the Great, so it's even more expensive than in HK), so not many local people will consider to move into Taipa.
Anyone else living in macau got some comments on this?
Coz i want to convince myself about the good future in macau too, but seems at this point, i still can't see anything can shred some light.
668業績
http://main.ednews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20070717/LTN20070717010_C.pdf
Peter，
我有部份friend working in Macau,他們都是由H.K. to macau working，由於最近有很多地盤動工，引致建做工人嚴重短缺(包括長工及散工)，因此現時人工比香港高出30-40%才有人做，一個地方的經濟起飛，往往由機建為主流，因為香港人在當地人工高，自然追求較好生活，所以現時租務及買樓特別旺，不但如此，二手車買賣市塲也特別旺，二手車價錢還比香港高，而我所得未確定消息，澳門政府使經濟更興盛，已向中央申請將泵仔及珠海一部份歸入澳門範圍，所以澳門將來比香港更好。
我比較同意Gordon的看法, 請大家繼續發表意見, 因為澳門只是一水之隔, 不少人常去.
我看海蘭苑的示範單位, 二千幾呎無敵大海境看正觀光塔, 但對開稍後會有填海活動, 所以只賣呎價3000元樓下. 海洋花園並非超豪, 這卻是平價. 管理層也謂另兩橦景觀稍差的豪宅也租出了50個單位. 不賣轉租是看好後市云, 但卻也可以玩「盈利倒退」, 玩殘小股東, 怕就投降, 不怕就愈低愈買, 每有股東會齊齊出席.
已看了668業績, 算是不過不失, 現金每股達1元, 帳面nav只是1.1元,用咁少錢就可以做生意, 服咗陳家了, 但今次不派高息, 似無意炒作, 要作為中長線持有, 相比稻香, 當然係值租好多啦.
我是澳門居民,也是peter兄的讀者,很多peter兄提到的股票也有跟進,但我對激成由peter兄剛推介時(大約$1.8-$2.0)已沒有興趣跟進原因是當時peter兄提及睇好該股主要原因是睇好海洋花園及澳門的樓價.坦白說現時澳門的樓價對當地人來說是物非所值的東西,雖然peter兄提及海洋花園並非一級豪宅,但以現時澳門人的薪金來說也是一個沉重負擔.當然不是沒有人買得起但這部份的人佔澳門整體人口不多.起碼本人身邊沒有一個朋友在最近一年買新居所.他們在澳門都可屬於中產階層.坦白說若現時的豪宅寄望本地人消化則不樂觀了.現時大部份這些樓宇成交都是外地資金,包括香港及大陸.大部份是申請居澳權.但現時澳門政府已暫時停辨居澳權的申請,仍未有巨體建議,有朋友做地產也表示最近市道很淡,大家都採取觀望態度.本人亦見很多香港開的地產公司集團都縮減分行.
我知道現時如中原或美聯等香港集團在港推銷澳門樓宇,但你們也要知道有沒有跨大的成份.
現時租樓市道仍然良好因正如FISH提及有很多外來的努工要租樓.
我覺得激成管理層對澳門樓市也是持觀望態度,等待澳門政府對澳門移民申請的新措施.
其實現時澳門的經濟並非外界想像中甘好, 好多新樓一係外地人買, 一係有層舊樓在手才能樓換樓, 冇樓在手之人根本買不起。 宜家只係賭業人工高, 我有些開製衣廠的朋友的寫字樓一個本地人文員都沒有, 全部係外勞, 本地人都去賭場做了, 除賭場外, 其他行業的人工不算很高, 以前政府工出名人工高, 現在對比賭場也不是了, 好多人也從政府工流向賭場及大酒店做。 現在係澳門, 除了幾間大賭場外, 好多賭廳已經執粒或準備執粒, 自由行收緊後, 細場根本沒得做, 好多都曬蓆, 荷官多過客。 現在賭業獨大, 其他中小企面對人工高、租金貴, 好多都係度捱, 只能用慘字形容。
Dear Peter,
I read your article in ET over one year and bought your new book recently. I want to say thank you for your sharing of investment knowledge.
Do your remember stock #731 Sampson Paper? I did analysis the financial data which same as your article mentioned. I bought @0.69 in Feb and now the price up to 1.53. Stronly agreed that every investor should take responsible for the decision not to blame you if any loss make.
helen
731 rockets for twisting to paper manufacturing instead of paper trading only. It was a cigar butt.
Well done, Helen!!
Ben, 你住在海洋花園, 是否覺得係「垃圾樓」呢?
I have some advice for you all guys. Peter never say a word on a stock before he buys or sells. I feel pity for those buying 219 at 1.6 from Peter who might actually bought at $1 or even possibly at $0.65.
There is big conflict of interest here.
"Commoner", are you from the ICAC? haha, would you like to pay back for me for those I lost on 258 and 585?
Why don't you use your real name and hide your tail and head instead? This is why I won't reply to free email address.
I should not have given this response in the blog, but you are so low class, I think you should not only study my book but read through all my MT articles, before jumping to your stupid conclusions.
I never hide that I am an investor myself, sometimes I win, sometimes I lose, when I lose, have I blamed the swordswoman? when I win, have I not badmouthed the mal-practice of 184.
Everybody knows I first bought 184 under 3hkd, I first bought 366 at 1.3 and 599 under 30 cents? You envy me and others who follow?
So you never understand why I have many friends. If I am of conflict of interest, you should go to complain to the ISAC or the security commission, and need not use a stupid fake name to bark here.
haha?
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