Tuesday, December 16, 2008

09運動服 內地料增長20%

——纺织服装业2009年投资策略
  2009年国内市场服装消费增速预计将下降至10%左右。今年10月份,国内服装消费增速打破1-9月份平稳上升态势,大幅滑落至单位数水平,剔除少两天重要假期和天气偏暖影响秋冬新装销售的影响,增速也已经回落至11-12%的水平。我们预计,2009年我国服装消费增速将从2008年的15%以上下滑至10%左右(上一轮经济低迷时,服装消费在2002年最低点的名义增长率为10.2%)。
  2009年品牌服装零售店的内生增速预计小于5%。只有品牌竞争力强、经营良好的公司才能够获得5%左右的内生增速,而零增长或负增长的情况会比较普遍。个体门店的销售增速取决周边居民的支付能力,因此我们采用城镇居民的“人均”名义消费支出增速(5%)来作为内生增长的估计基础。
  行业有望稳定增长
  我国服装消费仍有较大发展空间,服装消费在经济下行周期中具有较好防御性,特别是运动和休闲服类别。在上一轮经济低迷时,服装鞋帽增速相对稳定,与食品类别大致相当,高于金银珠宝和旅游增速。人均消费水平的国际比较显示,我国人均消费数量和消费档次都有巨大的提升空间。从价格档次来看,防御性的排序是:中档、低档和高档,将低档品牌排在中档之后是出于对价格战的担忧。单纯的价格低廉并不能决定消费者的购买意愿,我们看好“高性价比”的品牌定位。
  上游和出口相关行业(纺织、印染、服装加工等):中短期内难以提振,2009年增速明显放缓至单位数水平、甚至会出现负增长。2009年对出口有利的两个短期因素是出口退税上调和人民币升值放缓,前者主要体现为一次性补贴,后者可以一定程度上改善我国出口产品竞争优势。但在国外市场需求萎缩的趋势下,难以扭转相关企业订单增长乏力、资金周转紧张、利润率下降的困境。
  休闲服装防御性好
  我国休闲服装消费市场目前有4560亿元的总量水平,是运动市场的9倍。现代人的工作、生活节奏普遍加快,出于释放心情的需要,着装潮流越来越倾向于个性化、休闲化。休闲服饰成为国际消费市场中越来越推崇的着装方式,体现出一种品位休闲、人本与自然的双重追求的风尚。随着中国消费者消费能力提升,国际信息交流速度更为快捷,各类服装之间的界限越来越模糊,整体上呈现休闲化趋势。
  若中国经济出现调整,对任何行业都会有影响。休闲服由于价格相对低廉,所受经济周期的影响程度低于价格昂贵的高档或者奢侈类服装。休闲品牌公司都力图以大众化的价格提供给消费者时尚的产品,虽然高时尚度的产品价格相对较高,但是相对于国外品牌而言,国内休闲品牌公司依然具有价格优势。除非宏观经济出现非常大的波动,经济周期对国内休闲公司而言的影响会相对有限。
  受益于生活和着装休闲化的趋势,运动服装、休闲服的增长性和防御性将好于鞋、正装和时装。其中运动服装2009年的消费增速有望保持20%左右的水平,休闲服有望保持12%左右的水平。

15 Comments:

Blogger 謙仔 said...

2331,3818,2020, which one is best on your mind?

4:59 PM  
Blogger peter said...

sorry, I don't know these stocks, you might introduce them to us in this blog, thank you first

11:37 AM  
Blogger CDR said...

Hello Peter,
What do you think about David Webb's Xmas's pick -Alco (328), any chance of short call ? Thanks !

4:37 PM  
Blogger rickyhkg said...

Hello CDR, what is the reason for short 328? Tks

9:59 PM  
Blogger CDR said...

Hi rickyhkg, I mean 短炒, but seems rose too much jump fm 1.21 to 1.5 in 10 mins early this a.m. right after market start ^.^

1:35 AM  
Blogger CDR said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

2:04 AM  
Blogger Digital Analytics Learner said...

CDR: Remember 熱炒前買進!

2:27 AM  
Blogger CDR said...

yes EC, so i did not buy in any 328afraid that the crazy party will be over in 1 day.

2:47 AM  
Blogger CDR said...

Hi Peter, what do you think about 116, which I remember it's one of your 愛股 in 2006, now with revitalization of 自由行, will there be a round of speculation ? Thanks !

2:49 AM  
Blogger peter said...

yes, we should get them before they are hot and unload when every body are buying, except there is something new that we have missing.
Webb's stock pay good dividends, but won't be better than 2368.
I am always against short selling, My eq could not bear it.
My new year pick will be one with very good dividends, maybe will announce it earlier when the market retreats.

12:10 PM  
Blogger rickyhkg said...

CDR, 328 is a cheap cheap Audio, LCD oem company, but they have good quality management, but profit will be controlled by his customers,e.g. philips etc...
I worked in electronic industry as Peter knew that. for ME, i dont interested in 328 anymore in this coming poor economy. his LCD TV biz will have bad time.

6:36 PM  
Blogger rickyhkg said...

for 116, i saw Many 116 shops on the streets, very worry his overheads !!!!!!! be careful, "free walker" model still work, i keep my eys on that!

6:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

328債有十六億,現金六億,上半年盈利只在零六年水平,前一排排仲要同精電買入韓國一間虧損嚴重之企業,維持高息有困難。

生意是好了,但Walmart一定迫你平,要在料下功夫,但現在料價跌得咁急,看來都是可以的。

另外,料價跌,要擔心的是庫存方面會不會虧錢,但是通常賣給他們都是在一年半載前搞好訂單的,但價錢就應該未定,所以今年營業額應該維持到,但利潤則難估。

看來都是他另外持有的125新興光學和684亞倫國際較好。前者因盈利跌,削派息情有可原,但是在同業中都算是較好的一家(907跌了60%)。後者生意多了,雖有投資虧損幾百萬,但可能是把上年下半年突減的盈利釋放,盈利多了30%。但是這家公司生意雖多,但加上數期好似長了,令應收帳急增,故現金週轉不來,故中期派息大減50%,但財政尚穩健(可變現資產減負債約有1.1億港元),但可能全年都是要造到六千幾萬盈利,所以下半年不會賺太多,所以都要小心一些,但派息都會減到4-5仙。

5:41 AM  
Blogger peter said...

Christmas present, does Webb Sir mean that we buy it and then take profit? Does he mention a target price?

8:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

其聖誕禮物全文:
http://www.webb-site.com/articles/pick2008.htm

文中一字沒提目標價,只提如何便宜及買入理由。

3:51 AM  

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